Project Summary

The Monitoring the Future (MTF) study is an ongoing epidemiological and etiological research and reporting project that began in 1975. MTF has become one of the nation’s most relied upon sources of information on emerging trends in substance use among adolescents and young, midlife, and older adults in the United States. Nationally representative samples of 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students (about 34,000 students per year) are surveyed annually.

Together with the companion MTF Longitudinal Panel Study, which follows past and future high school graduates, this study comprises the integrated Monitoring the Future study.

MTF is designed to document the developmental history and consequences of substance use and related attitudes from adolescence through the retirement years, and to determine the individual and contextual characteristics and social role transitions that contribute to change and stability in both use and related attitudes.

MTF examines the importance of many other hypothesized psychological, behavioral, and social determinants of substance use, as well as a range of potential consequences (including physical and mental health, status attainment, social roles, and symptoms of substance use disorders). Impacts of policy changes will be examined, including the long-term impact of the federal Tobacco 21 law, as well as regulations and taxes aimed at curbing adolescent use of hemp-derived psychoactives such as delta-8.

The study’s very broad measurement covers (1) initiation, use, and cessation for over 50 categories and subcategories of substances, including symptoms of substance use disorders; (2) attitudes and beliefs about many substances, including perceived risk of harm, disapproval, and perceived availability; (3) other behaviors and individual characteristics, including health difficulties, delinquency, school performance, plans, and aspirations; and (4) aspects of key social environments (i.e., home, work and school) and social role statuses, experiences, and transitions.

Monitoring the Future elucidates substance use from adolescence through adulthood—including the introduction of new drugs—with major implications for policy, research, treatment, and prevention agendas. MTF is a critical source of national data on substance use and trends among adolescents and adults.