Americans are doing more than picking gifts this holiday season—they’re forecasting the economy.

The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, led by economist Joanne Hsu, offers insights into how consumer sentiment shapes holiday spending and broader economic trends.

With over 75 years of data, the index has become a trusted economic barometer, illustrating that perceptions about the economy often influence its trajectory.

This year, amid a presidential transition, consumer sentiment reveals a partisan divide: Republicans report newfound optimism, while Democrats express growing concerns. Independents, for their part, remain cautiously neutral. For retailers, these shifting sentiments can significantly impact holiday spending patterns.